PG,
I have to admit that I’ve found a new reason to give you props! I tip my cap to anyone who goes out there and at least considers using the numbers to try to improve something.
I can’t say I think differently, but I can say I have questions that need answered before I’d say one way or the other. I hope you’ll indulge me and try to answer those questions.
The 1st is pretty simple. What is the OPB for all the hitters you have data for on 3-2 counts? The 2nd is even more simple. What is the OPB for all the hitters leading off an inning you have data for on 3-2 counts? The reason I ask is, it seems to me there must be some point where putting a plan into action is just not worth the trouble, but of course there’s no way to really know unless and until that plan is put into action so the results can be checked.
The next question’s pretty simple too. How many pitches in your database were thrown on 3-2 and what percentage were they of the total pitches thrown? I don’t have anywhere near the database you do, but out of 28,452 pitches over 8 HSV seasons our batters saw, 911 were on 3-2 counts, or 3.2%.
Do you do any metric similar to the attachment? I’ve been doing that and others for quite some time, as wells as breaking it down of each individual hitter. When looking at the individual breakdown, it becomes obvious that not all hitters perform equally in that situation, so it seems to me that before I’d instruct a hitter to take in that situation under the 50-50 criteria, I’d want to make sure it wouldn’t be reducing his performance.