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Reply to "Minimum Velocity to pitch in college"

3and2Fastball posted:

We all have to remember, great college coaches didn't get to their position in their career by accident.  They feel confident they can teach a 90's guy to hide the ball better and to develop better secondary pitches.  They feel confident they can teach a 6.5 runner how to hit.  Etc etc

I agree that high velo is helpful, and I agree that college coaches feel confident . . . but if you look at the percentage of recruits who wash out, don't see the field, transfer, etc., I'd argue that that confidence is misplaced (I know you said "great college coaches" but I suspect that the not-so-great coaches have the same confidence). Very often a college coach will have seen a recruit play just a few times, perhaps a half-dozen. Their ability to assess and project is not nearly as good as they think it is. 

It's not college coaches, specifically -- humans generally over-estimate their own abilities. 

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