quote:Please keep in mind that parents/players may only have first hand experience w/ the dilema of wheather to sign or not, once or twice in a lifetime. Scouts have first hand experience much more often (as it is their job).
Low337, What exactly are you saying? Surely you aren't saying the scout's perspective is better simply because he's done this many times before. Generally speaking a scout's ultimate goal is to have his players sign. That is about as biased as one can get. On the other hand, a parent's goal is to do what is in the best interest of their son (which may include going pro). I can tell stories and exceptions about scouts and recruiting but that would be too lengthy. After looking at the data it's clear the odds for success in professional baseball are dim. My son (6th rounder)currently has a 5.6% chance of being a regular or better MLB player. Even though he was a higher draft pick out of high school (5th rounder), I'm glad he didn't sign because he would only have had a 5.3% chance of being a "regular or better" MLB player and a 0% chance of being a star. Can we say "snowball's chance" of survival? It has to be a real challege for the professional scout to sell the MLB career to the young player. I'll bet they don't pass out the Jim Callis data sheet to prospects.
Fungo