TR, you very well might be right.
But the trend is undeniable: Kids are committing earlier. And more importantly, kids seem to be signing earlier every year. It also seems, though, that many kids who sign early are the no-brainer picks, top pitchers or whatnot, and often are no issue when it comes to getting them into that college.
One danger parents should be aware of, though, is another trend, though not necessarily the base in baseball:
Schools are pushing kids to commit verbally very early, the idea being that many recruiters won't continue to pursue a kid who has already committed. Then, when it comes to signing (when it counts), they don't have as much money to offer or they are looking to grayshirt some.
I'm reading of hockey players committing up to two years ahead of when they plan to enter college (they're high school juniors, but will play junior hockey for a year or two), and the concept of grayshirting is a growing trend in football and some other sports.
It only figures to eventually hit baseball, where the scholarship totals are tight and the competition for those monies is, shall we say, plentiful.