My kid is also deep in the conundrum that is the "very good but..." 2022 baseball players. To add insult to injury he has been injured (like some other kids on here) or unable to be close to his best most of the spring and summer. I can really see it wearing on my kid and the adversity and challenge I have seen him deal with has made me very proud and at the same time made my heart hurt for him. My kids #1 tool is his bat but having been unable to work on that tool without significant pain has affected him a lot. See the chronic hamate pain (not broken) thread for more details on that.
I was at a prospect camp at a school he is interested in this weekend and spoke with several 2023 parents. I encouraged them and reminded them that they are very fortunate to be able to attend many of these camps (especially if you are in a baseball rich area for D1/D2 baseball like most of the East Coast, Cali, and from the Mid-Atlantic to Texas). The class of 22 had nothing in the summer/fall/spring of 2020/2021 to attend and zero in person D1 recruiting at the same time.
The full blown new reality of the transfer portal in all of its F-ed up glory is taking a dump on the class of 2022 with many schools taking 80% or more transfers and the balance HS kids. It is absolutely going to impact 2023's and 2024's but most likely not to the extent of 2022s. Or at least post 21/22 school year there will be more data on the transfer-portals impact on rosters.
Thank goodness for a community like this to be encouraged (sometimes a little depressed) and be able to be excited for those who have great things happening and also have somewhere to just read/discuss/think about these things other than with our kids and significant others!!!