All of the coaches leverage comes in ED.
To put more light on the subject, I want you to consider that the athletic recruit in RD has an even worse chance of acceptance than a non-recruit. Its simple logic. The coach gets his players in ED so his team is mostly set. The Admissions Committee knows that a kid being recruited for athletics who did not commit as an ED is most certainly being recruited for athletics by other schools. It is very likely then that he will be admitted to one of those other schools and therefore is less likely to come to this school even if he is admitted as an RD athletic recruit.
The recruit is almost certainly going to be admitted as an ED and most certainly rejected as an RD. It stinks but it plays out the same way every year.