We see most of those considered the top draft/college prospects in both showcase and tournament situations. The peak velocity seems to be about the same either way. We never list a bullpen radar gun reading.
Regarding peak velocity…
There are several important things relating to velocity. Average velocity, velocity after pitching several innings, velocity in the strike zone, velocity with movement, etc. The one thing that makes peak velocity important is when considering potential/projection.
If a player hits a 450’ homerun, he may hit it that well once, but that once tells us what he is capable of. If a pitcher throws 92 once, it tells us he is capable of throwing 92 mph. He might normally pitch in the upper 80s, but we know he can throw 92. Depending on other things, we might project him to throw mid 90s. But we know 92 is something he “can” do. Might not be able to throw it often, or even accurately at this time, but at least it is in there. With practice, instruction, conditioning, etc., his current peak velocity might become his average velocity. And if he is throwing upper 80s we can assume he is not throwing at max effort.
It really is different when one pitcher throws 85-87 and tops out at 88 and another pitcher throws 85-87 and has topped out at 92. Everything else being close to equal, these are two different level prospects. One likely has a higher ceiling.
Now, one time/one pitch is never enough to truly determine peak velocity. And peak velocity far outside the strikezone is never as important as in the strikezone. A high reading just one time could be the result of getting the reading of the ball off the bat, or even a malfunction with the gun. This doesn’t mean that the kid throwing low 80s will never throw over 90, but once you determine that a pitcher can throw a certain peak velocity, you can safely assume he will do that again or at least that he has that in him.
So the major points for us when evaluating (velocity only) are… (not necessarily in this order)
peak velocity
peak velocity in the strike zone
average velocity
sustained velocity
life with velocity
ease of velocity
mechanics with velocity
Obviously there are many other important areas when evaluating a pitcher. It’s not just all about velocity, but velocity is extremely important. It is easier to project one of the very few kids who can throw mid 90s to be a mid to better 90s Major League pitcher… Than it is to project the thousands of kids who can throw low to mid 80s to be a Jamie Moyer.
quote:Where does Robbie Ray (LHP for Team USA)project in the draft?
cbg,
Sorry, I don't like to go there on this site. The questions would never end and I’m afraid by being honest it might create some problems. Hope you can understand.
Besides I don't get involved in the mock draft stuff. Allan Simpson and David Rawnsley do that for us. On the other hand, we don’t consider the actual draft when grading players. Rather than trying to guess what others will do and using second hand information, we prefer to give our opinion based on what we have seen. Many scouts and recruiters have told us they like it better that way (Why pay us to read what they are thinking?). Things like signability are not considered when we grade a player. We grade on our opinion of present and projected talent.
I can say that we graded Robbie a “10” at our National Showcase. He is an outstanding lefty who does throw 90, but is equally effective in the upper 80s. The first time we saw him he topped out at 76 mph in Aug, 2006. We have watched him grow up and he has track record of improving a lot every year. When that happens there is no reason to think he is done improving. He would be a great draft pick, but he is signed with Vanderbilt (I believe). IMO he is one of the top HS lefties in the country. I’m very interested in seeing how he looks this spring. I really like that kid!
Some of our guys comp him to Mike Minor (another TN HS kid who went to Vandy). Minor went early (Braves) in the draft.