Schools can't go over the 11.7 (seniors excepted). Most P5's don't rely on seniors anyway, non P5 schools do. But schools that rely on seniors are usually dollar/budget constrained.
2021's will get it the hardest. Schools are encouraging middle of the road recruits to try JUCO, or the recruits are just seeing the numbers. (There really isn't too much savings to be had in the middle ranked recruits). Rest of the money is coming from coaches pressuring players to back load their deals (move 2021 year money to 21, 22). This means much less scholarship money for 2021's, who have not signed an athletic aid agreement as of yet. You will see smaller recruiting classes next couple of years. Lots of verbals will be pulled.
What are these schools to do? When they offered and signed the 2020 class to athletic aid agreements, the MLB draft was 40 rounds and players eligibility was expiring. The rules changed a bunch after they signed the kids.
BTW, nice to see a baseball thread on baseballweb.