After just finishing our first year of college baseball I will say that if I were a coach I would over recruit. You almost have to do it.
Kids drop out for various reason..cant handle being away from home..college ball wasnt what they expected...they cant make the grades..so many reasons a kid that you picked as a great recruit just doesnt work out.
If you dont over recruit then when these kids leave the program you wont have a team left.
Also competition is healthy and you want to earn a spot not just be given a spot.