Former
When it comes down to it the statistics don't really matter as far as an individual player is concerned. The NCAA clearly states their estimate is calculated by dividing the total number of players in a sport by 3.5 to determine the number of seniors. A more realistic number would be in the 5 to 8 range. As most players in the grades 9-11 wash themselves out by their senior year. Of the seniors they offer no statistic concerning the academic qualifiers. By taking a quick review of my son’s baseball team which has made the playoffs for 28 of the last 30 seasons. Team had 44 players with 6 being seniors of the 6 seniors ZERO are playing major college baseball. 1 is playing college football. Of the 5 not moving on to a major college for sports only one ever had the intention to play baseball in college as far as I know, he was the only one who attended a showcase. That player is now at a junior college. So as far as my calculation is concerned 100% from that senior class that ever had any intention to play college baseball are playing college baseball.
Now from the upcoming senior class there are 10 players of those 10 seven have indicated an interest in playing college baseball. At lest 2 will have a good chance to be division 1 players with 1 of those 2 having a good chance to be drafted in an early round. So I feel sure at least 30 percent of that class will be playing college baseball maybe 70%
That is why I just don’t think any statistical analysis is useful concerning an individuals chance of playing college baseball.
And even if the numbers were correct should that keep you from trying to play in college?