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Reply to "Pitches per Run Vs ERA"

Let's keep this simple.

 

You do not get a K unless you already have gotten two strikes.  As article linked by TPM suggests, MLB hitters make contact 80% of the time.  This does not mean they will put the ball into play, just make contact. 

 

A "contact pitcher" who allows the ball to be put into play for the out will rarely get into a two-strike situation.  In fact, per the article, the idea for them is to get the out within three pitches.  Not too many two-strike situations.

 

The K pitcher attempts to get two strikes and to get ahead.  A pop up, a foul ball, and you've got two strikes. 

 

Now tell me.  It's 0-2 or 1-2.  The K pitcher does not have to throw a strike or even come close to allowing the ball to be put into play.  Will he throw a "contact" pitch?  Heck no, it will be fastball up, down, in, out, curve, slider, fork, split or cutter or whatever.  The batter is totally on the defensive so that "80% MLB contact rate" now plunges to well below 50% I'm guessing.

 

Got it?  The K pitcher puts himself into a two-strike situation.  This is not usually done by blowing it past someone, just pitching to where the ball is not put into play. 

 

I just don't get the logic some advance that says it's better to allow the ball to be put into play.  Bad things happen when the ball is put into play.  In fact, "contact pitches" down into the zone have a tendency to be line drives and line drives are far more likely to be base hits.

 

Look at the batting averages against for high K pitchers.  Far less than "contact" pitchers. 

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