Appreciate everyone's valuable input. Thanks. To elaborate on my thinking and our situation, believe D3 HA is ultimately best fit. So, "playing 17U summer before senior year" is in essence, seemingly the most relevant (& universal) advice for our situation. Admittedly, I may be confusing son's 15U team talent level with level of competition we will face. This team could easily wipe the floor with both of our HS JV teams that have majority 16 to 18yos. HS program is a perennial 6A TX powerhouse if that matters. Son played the local 15U (now 16U) summer circuit last year, and these boys are different animals from what I saw last summer. Son will start as a primary starting pitcher and MIF on HS JV team, but will have to fight for playing time on this travel team (and appropriately so). While he is one of tens of thousands of kids being "loosely" followed by a strong local D1 program, from best I can tell as a pitcher, he has a (travel) teammate that's garnering BIG TIME REAL D1 interest with scouts showing up, as he's already touching 90 with excellent command. Son will have to compete to get an opportunity to even pitch, as the starting 5 are all sitting 85 +. So maybe I should've been more precise and said that 15U team is of (much) higher caliber than the 16U options available to him. While everyone's situation is different, I agree most decision makers don't care, and likely share many of the biases , perceptions, and conventional wisdom already shared. I too may be looking for rationalization of what may ultimately turn out to be a poor decision, or be cognitively biased that way. Though the only things my son and Cody Belinger may share are a mid July birthday and BMI, from best I can tell on his PG page, looks like CB played "down"/ at age level until 16 but later bounced back up to grade level (and obviously WAAAAYYYYYY BEYOND). Some of you may actually KNOW the Bellingers or of his situation and know what is posted on his profile to be erroneous or a misrepresentation. We are going to give this a shot for this year, see how the organization is, but heed the advice below and play 17U summer before summer year. Again, this team will likely play "up" by age locally which would then be grade level for my son, so it's likely a moot point. At a minimum, there are sure to be D1 eyes watching others on the team, so we will be at peace with letting go of gap year-D1 scenario chasing pipe dreams if there's no interest, or further engagement from what little is already there.
@anotherparent posted:If not, aim to be playing 17U the summer before senior year, since that's where below-D1 recruiting takes place. That summer, you don't want to be playing 18U or 16U. Before 17U, play on the team where he will get the best coaching and playing time.