quote:Again, people (including PGStaff) are just truly not aware of what sabermetrics are. There is not just one "sabermetric" stat called WAR. There are many, many advanced stats.
Take WPA for example. From Fangraphs:
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WPA (win probability added): WPA is the difference in win expectancy (WE) between the start of the play and the end of the play. That difference is then credited/debited to the batter and the pitcher. Over the course of the season, each players’ WPA for individual plays is added up to get his season total WPA.
Calculation Example: In game 4 of the 2007 World Series, the WE for the Rockies started out at 50%. When Jacoby Ellsbury doubled off Aaron Cook in the very first at-bat in the game, the Rockies WE declined to 44.2%. The difference or WPA was .058 wins (5.8%). Ellsbury was credited +.058 wins and Aaron Cook credited with -.058 wins.
Why you should care: WPA takes into account the importance of each situation in the game. A walk off home run is going to be weighted more then a home run in a game that has already gotten out of hand. This makes it a great tool for determining how valuable a player was to his team’s win total.
Saying "sabermetrics assume every situation is equal" is just flat out wrong.
Good observation on your part that there are many many stats, and WAR is just one of them. In the web link I posted about some UC Berkeley grad students applying Game THeory to try to analyze and predict the outcome of 0.5 inning of a game, it utilized WPA, WE, OBP, WHIP and etc.. It is very good attempt of their part and we need more of this. I would encourage anyone who is interested in weighted/advanced stats to take a class called "Game Theory", it may be an advanced undergraduate class or a graduate class, depending on the college. Ultimately, we want to be able to predict the outcome of an inning, a game, or a match-up between a hitter and the pitcher/fielders. If and when we can do it to some degree of success, we then got the model right with all the relevant factors and weights. I would hazard to suggest that all the managers already have these factors in their mind. Bochy from the Giants is probably the master of them all with the fact that Giants were out-matched by the Tigers but yet he out-managed the Tigers with his line-up and match-up.
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I will admit that my knowledge regarding situational sabermetrics is limited. I listened to a sabermetrics expert explain why an AB whether a lead off hit or walk off HR on opening day was equal to the same on the last day of the season. This was logical to me in some cases where the last game wasn't all that important.
For example... Bobby Thompson's walk off HR giving the Giants the pennant to me was more valuable than a walk off HR on opening day. If for no other reason than it is still talked about today. Statistically it is the same value as an opening game walk off HR, but which HR would people consider the most important or valuable?
Now I respect all the metrics involving baseball statistics. I can see the value and interest they bring to the game. However, based on these metrics Ben Zobrist would have been the MVP in 2011. Very good player, but who thinks he was the MVP?
I'm all for sabermetrics and increasing statistical information. MLB clubs utilize the information greatly. Just not sure it will prove which player is most valuable. And what does most valuable really mean? Is it the player who had the best statistical year? Is it the player who had the most impact on his team winning? Is it the best player? Is it the player who is worth the most money if they were a free agent? After all, wouldn't the player worth the most money in the open market be considered the real MVP.
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Good observation by PGStaff - 'just not sure it will prove which player is most valuable'. First what is the criteria and assumptions. Second, what is the resolution of the model in question and limitation. When I did my weighted stat for my modeling, I would tell the audience that this is a list of top ten widgets from a group of thousands of widgets. However, I would tell them among this 10 widgets, I can't tell you one is better than the other, even though each widget has a number associated with it; that is don't try to look more into what is already there.