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Reply to "Poll - Trout, Cabrera or other for AL MVP"

quote:
bball123- I think you're straying WAYYY off base here. If I'm reading what you're saying correctly, then I understand that you don't trust any advanced stats whatsoever because they can't perfectly predict the future. Is that correct? Because if so, that's pretty absurd. Advanced stats provide a MORE accurate retrospective analysis of the game and its results so that those that use such analysis can be much more efficient in the future. I'm pretty sure not a single person anywhere has ever argued that sabermetrics are perfect. But I know for a fact that many (and rightly so) argue that they are far more accurate than the traditionally accepted statistics.

No, nothing can predict future perfectly, that is why I always say "to some degree of accuracy" or something similar to it. What I like to see is stat being put into more concrete use, i.e.. be able to predict to some degree of stated accuracy. I have not issue if with the people at UC Berkeley doing their best with Game Theory to predict the outcome of an inning, a very objective criteria. What I don't like to see is the use of advanced stat to push someone like Cabrera down to the ground like that, in my opinion is a misuse of stat. I agree that we probably come to the same conclusion if we have a chance to sit down and have a cup of coffee to discuss out it. Since you 're in college, I would highly encourage you to take the Game Theory class. What I am saying is Bochy may use the same concept in Game Theory, matching up the pitchers to the batters based on his experience, history, pitcher, the nature of the hitters, their tendency, their weaknesses, and etc, he may not quantify them but it's all in the gut feeling. Same concepts but not being put down in numbers.
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