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Reply to "Poll - Trout, Cabrera or other for AL MVP"

bball123- I took some time to read the Berkeley Game Theory PDF you provided. Its very well-written and very in depth. However, to be quite frank, it told me nothing I didn't already know occurred.

WPA and RAA analysis happens every single pitch of every single at-bat of every single game by the front office. The information is then deciphered and consolidated and passed along to the coaching staff, who then relays it to the players.

Instead of using the term "Game Theory", mainstream media says that players and coaches study trends and patterns. In truth, game theory is exactly what happens each day in a baseball front office.

I'm impressed with the Berkeley students, but what they did is nothing revolutionary for baseball. Retrospectively analyzing a situation such as the one they analyzed is exactly how scouting reports and the likes are put together. I can guarantee with almost 100% certainty that the Giants' front office had this information on file.

The truth is that sabermetrics is not perfect. It will never be perfect. Baseball is an imperfect game with too many unforeseeable variables in order to create a perfected model. But there is not much that currently exists in the game of baseball that sabermetrics does not account for...and your example of game theory (which, I agree, is extremely interesting) is a perfect example of such. This is part of the reason why I am so adamantly opposed to those that believe Miguel Cabrera was more deserving of MVP than Mike Trout. Because when analyzing each and every aspect of their output and performance, it is blatantly obvious that is not true. Sabermetrics is much more than the OBP we learned about from Brad Pitt or the WAR we read about on FanGraphs. It is very much a specifically calculated mathematical technique that takes all parts of the game into account.

PGStaff- very good questions. In truth, the examples you provided are things that cannot be quantified at the surface. Nonetheless, those occurrences do factor into the results of the game, which can be quantified.

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Anyway, I believe in the more information the better. Baseball is a game of percentages. The more and better statistics, the better playing the percentages gets. Advanced scouting along with sabermetrics are here to stay. It's a must if teams want to compete. It goes far beyond statistics, the more a opposing player is studied, the more you know his tendencies and weaknesses. That is why we sometimes see early success before enough information is gathered on a hitter or pitcher. Then a weakness is exploited until an adjustment is made. Bottom line... Every bit of information is important. That includes eyes, statistical data, mechanical data, experience, instincts, etc.


I couldn't agree more with this paragraph, and I am so happy that someone recognizes the importance of all aspects of the game (it comes as no surprise that you do recognize it). I would never and will never discredit the importance of scouting. Baseball experience and knowledge are unquantifiable and invaluable to the game...and that is an infinitely crucial aspect to the success of baseball. But statistical analysis is so crucial...in some situations moreso, and in some situations not as much. The importance of all aspects of analysis cannot be discredited, and I grow frustrated at times when either side is discredited. It is simply ignorant to state that neither is important.

I firmly stand by my opinion...Mike Trout was MUCH more valuable than Miguel Cabrera in 2012. It wasn't even close. I believe the vote should have been unanimous and I believe MLB needs to reevaluate the voting process for such awards due to the inconsistencies of beliefs. But I do appreciate a good discussion and I do respect other people's opinions, if they are well thought out and warranted. This, in my opinion, has been a great discussion as a whole.
Last edited by J H
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