How do you know your catcher son is going to be a catcher for Dee One College? I've had several players go on to play collegiate ball and the one constant is that there isn't a set rule that they play where they were recruited.
I think that some things you might want to look at is the number of freshmen who sign NLIs, play that 1st year and then are on the roster a 2nd year. There is a huge turnover at many universities and at all levels.
One other constant is that the coaching staff may like your son but they are always looking to upgrade. If that opportunity comes along, they won't remember your son's first name.