JH, if it's late in a game and you have a multi-run lead, the proper question for a probability analysis is not the odds of his producing multiple runs, but whether the Giants would be more likely to get multiple runs with him walking and the next guy definitely batting, or with you taking your shot with Bonds and then possibly still also facing the next guy. There was a period in Bonds' career where the odds definitely favored the intentional walk. Even when the next guy was Jeff Kent!