In 1998, Bonds had on base percentage of .438 overall. But when he did not walk he had an OBP of only .309 on 167 hits, 8 HBP's, 6 SF, on 566 plate appearances excluding walks. So if he didn't walk, he had a 31% chance he would at least tie the game with a hit or HBP. This intentional walk took place with two outs in the ninth inning. If he was going to make an out in 69% of his plate appearances when he did not walk then why not pitch to him. Not only that but the HBP and some of the singles would only tie the game. If he made an out and he absolutely was not walked then he would fail to get any run in 69% of the time. Don't forget his off the chart OBP were that way because of all the walks he was given. Now I understand that his OBP would go up because sometimes he walked when a pitcher was NOT trying to walk him but I bet that wasn't many times as one would think. But the whole analogy is NOT walking him here and pitching to him, so it seems that some 69% of the time he would make the last out of the game. Maybe JH or someone here can point out if my math thinking is flawed.