Reply to "Puig"

jacjacatk5,000+ posts

I'd add that this is the same fallacy that leads to non-professional investors selling at market lows and buying at market highs. You can't time the market, and you can't predict hot and cold streaks with any certainty. See Gambler's Fallacy.

In fact, you can probably make a lot of money by betting on regression to the mean. Charlie Blackmon put up a 1034 OPS in April this year, and I'm betting you could have made good money in Vegas betting against him coming anywhere near that in May (when he actually put up a 718). He's much better than even money to end up closer to his current career .774 than to his current .856 by the end of this season

6/6/1412:09 AM

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