"Walking Barry Bonds with the bases loaded was never a good decision. Ever."
I assume,JH, you say that because you believe you know (illogically, I'd say) that there were absolutely no other variables, beyond baseball stats, that could have impacted the outcome?
But what if, hypothetically, the manager knew that the next guy up had a fractured wrist ... or a post-game appointment with the police who intended to put him in handcuffs ... or, God forbid: Hemorrhoids?
Would any of those situations make walking Bonds a good decision?
Not statistically, I suppose.
But aren't there an infinite number of variables that should influence managers' decisions? Up to and including, maybe -- streaks?
I think the cocoon you're weaving and getting trapped inside is putting complete faith in numerical data. It's a game played and coached by humans, right? And that just obliterates a whole lot of stats.
In my experience, great leaders use data but never rely on it.
(silly examples, but only to make a point) 