Here are commits by a collection of D1 schools as of November, 2017. This was the guide I used to give my son the green light (along with budget, fit, other attributes). I took from this chart that 90% of the budget for the top P5 schools is spent by November of kids Junior years. The 2019 kids were HS Juniors in November of last year. If the right offer was given, he was free to commit.
The last set of NCAA rule changes will do nothing to this chart. Do your own research for your situation. Use all the disagreements above to stimulate your own thoughts about your family's situation.
So, many of those schools are over-recruiting and the majority of those commits won't make the spring roster? Certainly, Arkansas doesn't have 25 roster openings for their 2018 class. Or am I reading that wrong? Thanks.