Yes, this is a great thread - great post, Texbbfan. I have linked the thread in Golden Threads - it's that important.
And what you have all said above applies at ALL levels of college baseball, not just the big DI's.
My son attended a small D3, and most of the players on his college team had been the stars of their HS teams. I think that ALL of the starters had been. It was rare for freshmen to get a starting spot or lots of innings as a pitcher, but if they worked hard and had the talent, they became more important to the team the next year.
"Reasonable expectations..."
Julie