PCDad,
I don't think you're giving the recruitng process or the integrity of the D1 coaches much credit. I've monitored this site for some time and if that situation was the status quo, it would be a well traveled topic.
Maybe others on this site with more D1 knowledge than myself can confirm your statement. I feel from our experiences that parents need to ask good questions and expect honest answers from coaches. Yes, there are a situations that a small number of the 280+ D1 schools will over sign recruits. But in most of those cases coaches that oversign expect some of their blue chips to get drafted, and sign. If anything, parents might be surprised with a redshirt season, not a trip to a juco.
I think parents need to understand all of the possible senarios, but at the same time expect that what is told of them during the recruiting process is the truth. Like I said PCDad, I may be way off base and talkin through my backside. But that's the impression I have.