Not easy to do but here is what I should have done. Review recruiting class, look at how many of the pitchers other than top guy actually developed. How many get cut, pitch very little and have more or less same stats for their career. If just the top two guys seem to stick then coaching is suspect and not committed to kids. Coaches always say the kids didn't work, didn't commit to program yada yada. This isn't always the case!
That is true to a point, IMO. I do think you should look at the whole class and see who is playing but look at classes above and below as well. You should, also, look at multiple years of a class.
I'll give you a reference from my son's college. Reality is that 8-9 pitchers get any significant innings in a year (say more than 40 innings). Each year my son's team (this is his third year of college) had 15 pitchers on roster. In short terms that is the best 2-3 of each class getting innings. But Lots of times it is injuries or where they happen to fall on the depth chart. For some of those 8-9 it came right away, others in took a year or two to get on field.
The class 2 years above son (just graduated) had 3 pitchers that were developed and pitched often but 2 of those did not pitch much until junior year. There were, also, 2 that graduated that barely played. Not sure how many pitchers came in that class.
In class right above son, 2 pitchers pitched a lot - one was drafted last year and one will be back. There were / are 4 pitchers in that class. The one drafted was the top guy coming in, the other one playing was the 4th guy. The other 2 left (one injured, one was gone when son got there so don't know why).
In son's class there were 3 pitchers in it. One washed out sophomore year because he could never get healthy and left - This young man would have been considered the "ace" of this class. Son pitched a lot freshman year but hardly any last year (3 IP) because of injury, 3rd one pitched about 10 inning freshman year, then was hurt over summer and did not play at all last year. He will be a significant player either as a weekday starter or middle relief guy this year.
Last years freshmen had one get major innings (the ace) and one get solid inning (#2) , Both will be major contributors this year. There are 2 other pitchers in this class, one has a shot at some time this year IMO.
The feeling is that the freshman pitchers this year will get very limited innings- there are 5.
Each year they have, also, brought in JC pitchers - 2 when he was a freshman, 2 last year and 1 this year. Of those 5, one played 2 years and was drafted last year, one never played, and the 2 from last year will be big contributors this year. the one this year is most likely not in the top 8 at this moment. So sometimes it is the coaches not developing and sometimes it is the players not developing. My son has talked about guys that work hard but there are guys just better. He has, also, talked about guys that don't work hard once they got to college.
So in some regards you are right, the best pitchers get to pitch. Like I said, innings are limited and goes to those that perform. Sometimes that is about pure abilities and so top recruits get those innings not because others were developed but because there were simply better players. But injuries play a huge role in it as well.