old_school posted:It’s not just about pitchers and velocity numbers, it is broad based statement. If you take the top 20 12u kids in a local little league and track them to 17u well over half will almost certainly be the same names if they keep playing. It won’t be 100% but he numbers are overwhelming.
this isn’t an opinion it is just true. The numbers will skew higher every year older that you start. It is a funnel, probably only 5 of those 20 play in college at all and 1 or 2 in D1.... it isn’t about the outliers
The main difference is the age you pick for that comparison. You're probably right about 12U kids, but picking a pre-puberty age and saying the top 11- or 12-year-olds will be the best at 18U is a lot shakier than saying the best 14U or 15U players will be the best at 18. Then when people start talking about 11-year-olds throwing a legit 75....c'mon. That's not even the 1%, that's the 0.0001%.