bballman,
I agree with your reasoning. I too think that "good" pitchers are the ones who have both a good fastball (velocity) and a breaking ball along with another offspeed pitch like the CU or knuckle. These pitchers for obvious reasons tend to generally throw a lot more than anyone else on a team. A case in point-
Two years ago my son was on a traveling team and was the ace on the team. He was called upon to pitch more and more as the season progressed and was developing quicker than his team-mates. I kept warning the coach that they need to get another person in the rotation and not to overuse my kids arm. As the season was coming to a close in one of the last tournaments we did my son pitched a weekend where he pitched in every game (5 total). I told them they need to take him out- that he was done pitching several times in that tournament and they would take my son aside and talk him into pitching another inning. Luckily my son was only 11 at the time and not throwing too hard that would damage his arm. After that tournament we quit the team and went onto a different team. I talked to his old coach and told him the reasons why- too many pitches and not enough rest! My son ended up suffering from some overused muscles in his legs and feet from that tournament and took several weeks to recover.
I totally believe that it is actual "hard pitches" on unrested, overused or improperly warmed up arms, that end up causing damage to arms at the young or older age.
The statistics in my opinion have just been added up wrong! If you were to take for instance the top ten kids in an area at the age of 12-13, every one of them with few exceptions would readily admit they have a breaking ball. Of those ten kids however, statistically speaking, they all throw harder fastballs, throw deeper into games, throw more often, and also push themselves beyond their limits on a regular basis. Its all about the depletion of "strong" mucle tissue supporting what would otherwise be fragile ligaments and joints. Recovery from "normal use" throwing should never cause any permanent damage and in fact strengthen the joints and their vital ligaments and tendons. If done correctly, in theory, one could pitch all types of pitches well into his 40's- 50's while retaining good velocity. Randy Johnson comes to mind right off.
I think more research needs to be done on "fastball mechanics" and its damaging effect when done incorrectly. I look at footage of my son throwing and start breaking down some of the fundamental aspects of it and find some interesting things. One thing I found was the rate of acceleration was astounding! From the **** phase to release phase of the pitch, the arm accelerates the 5 oz. ball from 0-65 mph (that is what my son threw last year as a twelve year old) in around 3/100'ths of a second! If one starts then thinking about the forces involved, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to realize the potential damaging effects this could have on an arm that was not properly warmed up and ready to pitch or one that was overused and lacked the proper strength to keep everything in order. Another aspect of analysis I was intrigued by was the force upon the arm during the rotation of the hip phase and coming into the **** position. The forearm basically goes from a verticle to a horizontal (parallel to ground) position as the body begins to wind up to deliver the pitch. Have you ever tried just cocking the forarm in back of you and making it come into a parallel position with the ground? It fricken hurts! Certainly a overused arm could not repeatedly do this a 100 times in a game without the arm over-extending due to lack of good muscle in the arm preventing that stress.
Another thing I noticed over the years from slow mo video is what is happening right at release of the ball. I have noticed that pitchers who suffer from joint and arm pain on a regualr basis are literally trying to throw their arms out of their sockets at release because they do not have the proper rotation arc of the arm at release following into a nice arc slowdown. If one were to watch from the forearm out from ****-phase to follow through, their hand should make a perfect arc. Some pitchers in order to get "closer" to the plate wil extend the arm and hand too far in front of their body before release causing their arm at release to make and abrupt downward turn as it fights against the body holding it back.
anyway, I agree that overuse from a good fastball armis the "main" cause of ruining arms!