Well, let's start with this, assuming excellent academic chops... there is a huge difference between the odds of a yet-to-display-D1 tools player to play at Stanford or Vandy than at an Ivy, from a top level player standpoint. And, again, huge difference between some of those you named in the first segment as compared to the second. As a player who projects to be small and doesn't yet throw with top tier velo, odds are extremely low as a P at a Stanford or Vandy. You didn't really sell us on his hit tool, so I'll say the same is likely as a position player at those schools.
Beyond that, there is so much that can happen with a decent young player, there is really no way of saying or putting odds on it with any degree of accuracy. Running 6.7, throwing 85 and exit of 90 by junior year, combined with the academic chops would certainly put him in the realm of real possibilities at schools other than Vandy and Stanford but he's not nearly there yet, so that's a good deal of speculation. His current numbers and age are such that you are wasting your time worrying about this until he develops more. He hasn't even started HS and you are asking about odds of playing D1 ball... usually an indication that you should take a step back, breathe and enjoy the first year or two of HS ball. Try to provide reasonable resources so that he can develop over that time (as a HS player). Then, you can re-assess for any next-level direction.