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Reply to "So your kid just turned down 1st round money"

Any statistics used are flawed. The reason is… Signability is so important these days.

There are many high school players who go undrafted because of signability concerns. MLB Scouting Departments might think they are 5-6 round types, but the player will not sign for 5-6 round money. Some go completely undrafted and end up getting drafted out of college. This screws up the stats completely! Matt Weiters went undrafted out of high school!

Others with early round talent, but who are tough signs, often go in the later rounds and end up signing for early round (even first round) type money. They go late because the clubs don’t want to waste an early pick on a questionable sign. Things can happen that allow the club to spend more money and Bingo, you have a 14th rounder getting first or second round money. This also throws off the statistics regarding money, round and signing.

And, some get drafted in the first round, but end up going to college anyway. Jeremy Sowers and John Mayberry Jr. come to mind in recent years. Both were drafted in the first round again out of college. They turned down the money out of high school, took the risk, and ended up winning! Both got more money the second time and both should get a degree from two of the best academic schools in the country! That is having your cake and eating it too! Yes, there are examples of those who it didn't work out as well for.

One thing for sure… There are NO bad decisions in this process… There are only bad results! Money seems to dictate the decisions most of the time, but not always. Some, as mentioned above will turn down first round money and others will sign for nothing. I don’t think either deserves to be chastised.

Greed, on the other hand, bothers me! When I see someone who does not want to attend college and turn away from 3 or 4 million dollars… because they think they’re worth a lot more than that… and then end up with practically nothing… It’s kind of sad!

IMO - The statistics can be confusing! We are talking about individuals. Individuals will end up 100% signing or 100% not signing. The stats that show percentages of making it to the Big Leagues mean nothing. To the individual, he will either 100% make it or he will 100% not make it. (I know... there are many more of the 100% who don't make it! Smile) Same for getting a degree, either 100% he will or 100% he won’t.
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