Originally Posted by bballman:
Well, here's the other dynamic with the sabermetric stuff. Everyone has heard and knows that anyone can take stats and make them what they want. So, let's say a scout sees someone they like, but the regular numbers just aren't there. So they start looking for ways to make that guy look good. So instead of looking at BA, they say, hey, let's combine BA, Slugging % and OBP and see how he looks. Wow, this guy looks real good now. Let's call this OPS and tell everyone how good this guy is. Not saying that OPS is a bad stat, but my point is the more information that is available, the more you can manipulate it to say what you want about a player. Just pick and choose which stats you want to use and mix and match them until you come up with something that looks good.
More information isn't necessarily a bad thing, but you can see how the more you mess with it, the more you can make things look the way you want. Cool and dangerous at the same time.
This isn't true if you actually understand the math. Yes, you could make up a bunch of stats and try to sell them as some special system, but the people who make money at this stuff actually know what is and isn't valid mathematically, and aren't going to be fooled by junk statistics.More information isn't necessarily a bad thing, but you can see how the more you mess with it, the more you can make things look the way you want. Cool and dangerous at the same time.
Junk statistics are stuff like most wins in the 80s, or gems like this one (http://www.dallasnews.com/spor...s-rangers-lineup.ece):
If you measure that way, Choo’s deal actually comes out as something of a bargain. Consider that over the past five years, Choo ranks fifth in the majors in OBP. The four guys ahead of him: Joey Votto, Prince Fielder, Joe Mauer and Miguel Cabrera. All have deals worth significantly more than the one Choo signed Friday. Of that group, Choo is the only one to have both 75 homers and 75 steals. Sheesh, he’s the only one with 50 homers and 50 steals.
OPS, OPS+, ERA+, WAR, etc are all mathematically valid, useful ways of comparing disparate numbers that do actually go a long way towards giving you singular metrics useful for comparing players.