Originally Posted by Soylent Green:
Well let me preface my reply by stating that I'm an absolute amateur in the realm of sabremetrics and stat analysis... unlike a big timer like yourself, Stats. I do enjoy diving into stat analysis, studying numbers for various conferences/teams/leagues, looking at new ways to quantify performance, etc (strictly as an amateur, mind you).
I’m not quite sure if that was a dig or a compliment, but whichever it is, I’ve never considered myself anything other than a rank amateur, and for sure not a “big timer”. I do exactly what you say you do, but I don’t try to say player “A” is superior to player “B”, unless there’s a very precise definition of what it is that being looked for.
First off... there really is a battle of approach ongoing between traditional "scout's eye" vs sabremetrics as to which is superior for evaluating and comparing player performance. This has been much discussed and a best selling book/major motion picture have been devoted to the subject... so I'm relatively certain that such a battle exists between these two approaches. Ask Nolan Ryan and John Daniels about it, for one recent example.
I don’t have to ask anyone because I know how I define stats, and to me there’s no battle at all. the battle is in what’s being used and how.
You're right that there a lot of 'sudden sabremetricians' out there thanks to iScore and Gamechanger. Not sure why you feel such a need to try showing superiority to such a lowly level of statkeepers, Stats.
I don’t feel “superior” to anyone. The reason is, math is math. I’ve said before that the problem isn’t the numbers, its how those number are generated.
I'm sure there are some who, as you describe, look at little Johnny's HSJV .575 and extrapolate freely to MLB greatness... but that's no different than the parents who see Johnny hit a 12U homer and start counting the bonus money. I think the far greater majority are probably much more realistic, Gamechanger or not. One thing's for sure, if Johnny is hitting .575 for the JV squad, then he is demonstrating very solid potential to hit well at the next level... which for him is his HS varsity squad. So not sure what the issue is with mom and dad keeping tabs on basic stats? Also, the more people diving into basic scorekeeping, which often leads to deeper understanding of what's what in the great game... the more baseball fans are being generated... so all good as far as I can see.
Why do you think I have any issue at all with mom and dad keeping tabs on stats, basic or not. And I don’t know where you got the idea I have anything against people learning to keep score. Heck, in any given season I teach or at least help dozens, from 6 to 60, but I don’t teach “basic scorekeeping”, I teach the rules and how to apply them.
As for the "scouting eye being omnipotent", I certainly never said anything like that. What I did say was that I believe there's an ideal balance range between using statistical metrics AND traditional scouting expertise in evaluating player performance. No doubt there are old school scouts, especially 10 years ago, who wouldn't give any real consideration to some of the newer stat metrics... only their own reads on players based on their experience. Those days are of course long gone. I do seem to now hear a lot of "stats experts" though who take basically the same view, ie "I can tell you the full story on a player's ability/projectability/value/career based on a certain group of metrics. That's equally foolish, IMO. Numbers can be every bit as biased as the scout's eye, or the HS coach's eye.
I can tell you this for sure, having gotten the information from a scout for the Dodgers who was scouting in the 50’s and 60’s. they used the same basic stats then that they do now and likely will always use, but you don’t seem to believe they are stats. What age is the player, how tall, what’s his weight, what’s his family history. Then there’s always an evaluation of the baseball skills, and always some kind of evaluation about the player as a person.
One thing’s for sure. You’ll never hear me say I can tell the full story about a player based on a certain group of metrics. Not because its not possible, but because as far as I know, there’s no metric or group of metrics that says it all. There could be for one situation, but never for all.
Validity of numbers at the amateur level is definitely hit and miss.
Very true.
But... a lot better than it was not so many years ago when one guy kept a scorebook and the numbers disappeared into a black hole.
Also true, and getting better all the time.
The programs you mention create an open forum, where anyone interested can take a look at how the scoring is being done. In the case of my son's travel club for instance, there are generally 3-4 people scoring games via Gamechanger. It's pretty easy to see who knows how to score properly and who doesn't... and by the end of the summer, there's generally one guy being followed. Of course this is without benefit of the trickle down expertise from the top.
I’ve seen the same thing at the HS level. In fact I’ve had a couple parents do the same thing for our team. Its fine with me because I was once a baseball parent myself, which is why I do the newsletter after every game and keep up the web site with all the stats. I know there are people out there of just about every level of understanding of the game, and of just about every philosophy of raising a child. I may not agree with many of them, but I do understand and respect them because it’s a parent thing, and when that happens you just have to allow it to go where it may, hopefully giving gentle pushes in the right direction.
Where I get the most positive feedback is when I take the time in the newsletter to explain why something got scored the way it did, using the rules to explain it. A big problem with the rules of baseball is that very often people stop reading when they find something they THINK fits the situation. Then there’s always those things people BELIEVE are true because they heard someone they thought was an authority say them.
Luckily you have agreed to make yourself available to us here on the HSBBW Stats!
I haven’t agreed to anything. I just do what I do and try to help others. Unfortunately it’s a lot more difficult to explain things in a forum like this than in person. 