PABaseball posted:collegebaseballrecruitingguide posted:There are plenty of other schools (FIU comes to mind immediately) that bring in enormous freshman recruiting classes. Their 2020 class looks like it is about 17, 2021 already 11. Some school athletic directors set a cap on the number of student athletes a program can have competing in fall ball, I personally know one D1 program who caps it at 2 times the spring roster limit. Over-recruitment is a big factor in player churn, and the new D1 transfer rule allowing players not on athletic aid to enter the transfer portal and to go D1-D1 transfer without a sit out Year is going to have an impact on schools that offer zero or few athletic scholarships. That may be what is hitting those SEC schools mentioned earlier, that their guys who are walk ons are getting offers of athletic aid from other schools and deciding it is “time to dip.”
Which school is capping the fall roster at 70? D1s absolutely bring in more guys than necessary but if anything D1s have the lowest fall roster numbers. I don't know any D1s that will ever have more than 40/45. There are the scholarship guys, then a handful of no $ preferred walk ons that have to battle it out with the walk ons who made the roster last year. Still, they aren't bringing in that many non scholarship guys to the point where it would ever get to 50+ let alone 70. Jucos and D3s have a bigger problem with roster sizes and cuts as they don't have a roster cap.
The schools with 17/18 kids in the recruiting classes are also the schools losing 3-6 high schoolers to the draft each year and another 5-12 rostered guys. They get a bad wrap because it doesn't work out for one or two recruits each year but when you're competing for a CWS each year it makes sense.
Are you basing your 40-45 on fall rosters posted online? I am basing the 70 on what the coach is telling recruit parents. That’s not to say that they actually bring in that many in the fall, but the AD is giving them the latitude to do that.
Regarding drafted player losses, this year FIU had 4 rostered players drafted and had about 9 who were serious draft prospects. Of the 4 drafted, assume all were on scholarship. Let’s also assume 2-3/4 sign. That means 6-7 players that coach thought might be leaving (assuming all still had eligibility) would likely be returning. That has a trickle down effect to the incoming recruited class. So schools like FIU over-recruit because of those factors. For anyone going into a situation like that, they need to have this in the back of their mind.