I think the HA D3s are not likely to have athletics if they can't have everyone on campus because it wouldn't be received as equitable (prioritizing athletes over others who desire to be on campus) and they don't have the argument that they need the revenue from athletics. But unfortunately, athletes at D3s do make up a significant chunk of the student enrollment so they risk losing them too. The highest academics will always have a waitlist to get in though so probably not their biggest concern.
I live in NESCAC-land (New England) in an area where there are very few cases but it's on the rise and we're about to get shut inside for 6 months due to weather. I can see the arguments from both sides. People are paying significant $ for their kids to get a high worth degree, and want their kids on campus, but the small towns don't want the problems and the kids can't be locked down on campus forever. 20 cases in ones of these small towns with small hospitals and the threat of community spread is a problem, while it's just a blip at some universities elsewhere.
I'm not saying I like the situation, and several kids I know are affected and it is heartbreaking. I am just hard pressed to find fault with how either the families, kids or administrations are feeling about things and the decisions they have to make.