jacjacatk posted:I'm not sure that anyone thought he would be a complete incompetent joke, he's not Shaq Thompson. I would say that the expectation was probably centered around his AFL performance, and that he's likely near the upper end of what I thought it was realistic for him to do. He'd be several standard deviations away from any reasonable prediction if he makes it to MLB at all, much less the all-star game.
The realistic ceiling on what should be expected at this point is probably competent AA-offense, but not good enough defense to be an on-field asset at that level. The upper error bar on that prediction probably doesn't include reaching MLB (on talent alone, anyway). The lower error bar is probably an eventual collapse back to AFL-like numbers at his current level.
To be fair I am not sure the AFL was used to establish an average performance or any type of standard deviations on what his performance will be. I am pretty sure they never calculated a z-score for his performance. The Mets needed to find out fast where he would fit in the spectrum and start out. The AFL was just a convenient place to face good talent. It seems like they put him in the correct level as he is getting adjusted to and making adjustments to his game. Plenty of people predicted he was a joke, would fail fast, and he has not done that. So now that those predictions were incorrect those people move the bar to he now has to move through all levels and be in MLB by the 2018 All-Star game or he fails and their predictions that he will fail come true, they were always right and never wrong. Heads I win tails you lose.
As an aside I enjoy that we are now seeing a steady stream of athletes named Shaq. i find that one of the things that make sports fun.