I fear most everyone is underestimating the logjam. Some think the older current JUCO players will simply take off to a 4-year. They sure can, IF there is a place for them to go. Is there any reason to believe the NCAA isn’t going to follow suit? None that I’ve heard.
In terms of kids simply hanging up their cleats and moving on, I’m hyper skeptical. After this spring, a buddy who played NAIA ball said the same thing. He guessed maybe 10% of seniors would return. He and many others were way wrong. The general consensus seems to be that it was more like 60-70%. Me, I think this generation is A) almost nothing like their parents (who are the ones speculating right now they’ll just move on with their lives), B) in absolutely no hurry to jump into real life (especially in a Covid era job market) and C) filled with delusions they will play professionally. Does that represent each and every kid? No, but the vast majority? Far too many? I sure think so.
So I believe this will increase reclassifications in high school, gap years being taken and countless guys looking to “hide out” and ride the storm out until things get back to “normal” and they can go get all the things they’ve wanted. If it’s possible to hide out at your JUCO and wait another year for your D1 or D2 opp, they’ll do it. Even if they don’t get any scholarship monies. Out of pocket expenses to stay in JUCO another year could look awfully attractive when compared to settling for a 4-year opp you don’t like and/or where you’ll largely ride the bench for a year. But at a way more expensive price tag. Spend a lot more money and sit or spend way less as a super JUCO-experienced veteran playing JUCO ball and taking a few throwaway classes? Maybe it’s a Midwest thing, but I’m not sure I know many current players that understand money well at all. If they’re not paying for it now, it may as well not exist in their eyes. They’ll naively leverage themselves to the eyeballs to get their shot at their dream. I think most who will hang up their cleats and move on will be due to parents that drew the hard line for them and forced them into “retirement.” Good luck expecting the rest to have the wisdom of adults. Those are the not the kids I see, but I’m sure a few exist.