@Viking0 posted:When a kid is a Junior in HS, they don't necessarily know if they are the 99% or 1%. I know some kids who I could see if a few things went right, that they'd make it to the next level, but I'd still put the odds (in my brain, so take this with a grain of salt) as low. Also, there are some kids who are in it for the baseball more than the academics. They may end up getting a degree out of it, but that is secondary to them. When I ask one kid how his academics are going, he simply replies that he is in it for the baseball.
There are always some outliers and some late bloomers - especially with pitchers. But by junior year of HS MLB scouts have identified the overwhelming majority of draft prospects in that class. So the kids (and parents) may not know but the scouts do. There is always a chance for a kid to develop in college and become a legit prospect even if he wasn’t one in HS. But the odds of making a living in pro baseball are getting longer every day. Fewer scouts, fewer minor league teams, more coaches with no playing experience, etc. The kids that you reference that are in it for the baseball better have a good back up plan.