Another %... 6% of high school seniors will go on to play college baseball. Here is a question... What would the % of those seniors that have the desire and talent to play college baseball that do play college baseball. Obviously that would be much higher than 6%.
I would guess that more than half of all HS senior baseball players have no intention of playing in college. So why would they be part of the odds? Then there is the other seniors who simply don't have the talent to play college baseball. Subtract them from the odds. So the true odds would be... The number of high school seniors that have the talent and desire to play college baseball, that actually get the opportunity to play college baseball. Of course, I have no idea what % that would be, but I'm positive it is much more than 6%. While those who lack talent and/or don't want to play college baseball would be 0%.
You're leaving out one group from your calculations, I believe. There are some kids who may have the talent and desire to play at the next level but just can't or won't pull the grades required.