The odds of playing at the next level were never a discussion point in our household. My son played the game because he loved it and wished to continue to play. He is happiest when on the field playing baseball, next to that is probably training and preparing his body to play baseball.
He plays because that is where he finds joy. He has generally always had a reasonable understanding of where he stacked up talent wise. He aways knew whether he could compete, he never found himself in a situation where he did not feel fully capable of competing.
It never mattered what level of ball he was playing, he knew he could compete at each level and knew that he would make it to the next level. It was never a question. There has never been a plan B. He was always all in 100%, sort of like the invading army burning their ships, no way but forward.
Things are much tougher now, yet he continues to know he can compete at his current level of play and expects to make it to the next level. Odds do not come into play. He does what he does...perhaps at some point he will not have the opportunity to make it to the next level one day. If that day ever arrives, he will deal with that day then. He does not calculate odds. That is counter productive to achieving his goal. A distraction, a reason to fail, an excuse...
There really is no plan B. One day he may need a new plan, but it will not be a plan B, it will be his plan. Achieving greatness, and anyone past college has achieved something very special, can not be accomplished with a divided mind, unless you have truly superior gifts.
It is all in, or not really worth the effort, at least for my son.
And, money has nothing to do with it in all reality. He does not play the game dreaming of great wealth, although he would like to be able to pay his bills. But he plays the game dreaming of his next at bat, his next diving catch or double play ball. The ball he hits off the wall and legs out for a triple or the ball that leaves the field of play. It is purely for the love of the game that he plays.
Odds of play never ever factored into loving the game.