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Reply to "The ODDS of playing"

The odds change in large part due to self-selection.  Baseball has psychological (and physical) breaking points:

 

*Little league to travel baseball

*Travel baseball to high school baseball

*High school baseball to college baseball

*College baseball to professional baseball

*Professional baseball to the majors

 

Each player (and by extension the parents) are making mental decisions along the way (self-selecting) as to the odds little Johnny will make it to the next level.

 

From youth to travel baseball failure is the main culprit of the gleaning process.  There are early maturers who dominate the game and reserve outfielders (like Bum, Jr.) who had little success but through sheer determination pressed on.  Most quit because of the hopelessness they feel from failure.  Their odds are 0% from the beginning because of the lack of mental fortitude.

 

From travel to h.s. baseball there are those that find other interests, find girls, don't put in the hard work necessary, etc.  Their odds are likewise 0%.

 

From h.s. baseball to college there are even more reasons to quit the game.  Poor grades.  The prospect of going to a J.C. to develop more.  Money issues.  I'm pretty sure the odds are closer to 90% for a kid who has worked his tail off, learned to deal with failure, and wants it bad enough. 

 

From college to pro the physical side is the determining factor.  But even at that level, guys quit because they're lonely for their girlfriend, feel hopeless due to lack of playing time, or don't work at their craft hard enough.  Their odds are likewise 0%.

 

There was one kid who played with Bum, Jr. was had a very good college career.  Way better than Bum, Jr.  He got rocked in Rookie ball and quit.  His odds are 0% and were from the beginning.  He finally faced failure and couldn't handle it.  Meanwhile, son just kept plugging along. 

 

What are Bum, Jr.'s odds now? There is somewhere between a 0% and 99% odds that he'll be called into the office someday and told to go packing.  But I guarantee you right now there is a flat-out 0% chance it will be Bum, Jr. who quits on his own.  He is just wired that way.  This year was tough because he tore his ACL.  But he has rehabbed in record time and is raring to go next year.  His mental toughness developed through years of failure (and mental resiliance developed from years of success he has had, too, to carry him through the hard times) means his odds, if it were up to him, are 100%.

 

I am 100% confident that Bum, Jr. can compete at any level, AA, AAA or MLB, if ever given that chance.  He's a brilliant kid who learns from each experience and adapts.  Are his overall odds 100%, heck no, but better than the 0% chance if he were to self-select and quit.

Last edited by Bum
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