Fenway, with all due respect...
7.129 Billion people, those are the type of numbers (odds) that I'm talking about.
Lets start cutting into those odds.
Of the 7.129 billion people.
How many are males?
How many play baseball?
How many live where baseball is not played?
How many are either too young or too old to count?
How many desire to make baseball their career?
Sorry I just don't see the insurmountable odds. First of all we can't use 750 as a number. That is the number at any given time, but the number in any given season, or the overall number is much higher than 750.
Then there is the fact that others actually make the decision for you. You start when young, you play for enjoyment. Later comes high school, if you don't stand out there, Plan "A" probably should be something other than being a ML player. If you are still in the running, college baseball or the draft is the next step. If drafted in a good round out of HS, you have a good chance of making it. If you go to college the process continues. You need to standout enough to create scouting interest. Then you either get drafted or attempt to catch on as a free agent. Your odds will depend on what round. If you're a 1st rounder your odds are great! If you are selected in the 30th round your odds are not so great. Now if you have made it to professional baseball you are in the true number that dictate the odds of playing MLB. This is where the 4 ingredients to winning (success) take place. (Talent - Effort - Intelligence - Luck)
Yes, luck, both good or bad, can determine success. Effort covers things like desire, work ethic and persistence. Intelligence covers everything from behavior to decision making. And Talent will always be #1, but sometimes it isn't enough without the other three ingredients. These four things will determine "your" odds.
Anyway, I understand the numbers (odds). I also understand that odds are determined by whatever numbers someone wants to use. To me, the only numbers that count are the number of players in professional baseball. I just don't think young people that love the game are ever going to quit playing in high school or college. Beyond that, most players would continue on to pro ball if they get the chance, but that is no longer up to them. If no one signs them, their odds are ZERO. Only those in the pool of professional players are involved in the real odds. Everyone else has hopefully gained a lot from playing a game they love.
Now comes the time to look at risk and reward. Let's say you're not an early round draft pick. Lets say you fit into the 5% or lower range of making it to the Big Leagues. Once you make it the odds don't matter, you're chances of sticking around for awhile will depend on you. Everyone would like those odds! But back to the 5%... The RISK is you don't make it, you didn't get a good signing bonus and you have spent time doing something you love rather than what you will end up doing. (Notice I said spent time rather than waste time). The big REWARD is you will become a multi millionaire doing something you love for a living. You will retire as a wealthy man at a young age. Of course, there is everything else between the biggest risk and biggest reward. I look at it as a small risk with potential of large reward. In fact, I actually see the risk as somewhat of a reward.
How many occupations are there out there with that type of reward? That little of risk? That good of odds?
So obviously the odds are horrible if we use numbers that include every man, woman and child on Earth. Odds are not good even if we just use those that play baseball. However, this is not like the lottery where every set of numbers has the same chance. That would be true odds! When we see a young Bryce Harper, Justin Upton, Jason Heyward, etc., we know their odds are very good. Others maybe not that good, some maybe one in a million. All I know is that in any given time there will always be 750 people in the Major Leagues. And from one day to the next it is not the same 750 people.
Bottom line... I'm not sure baseball should be considered a "plan" A or B. There really isn't any planning involved that I can see. You can plan and accomplish some things like being an accountant or being in business, but it doesn't work that way in baseball.
To me kids should have one plan... Be the best you can be at whatever you decide to do. Sometimes I think it's the parents that most think about a plan. In my experience young people change their plans a lot.