Those are interesting thoughts JCG...
Under the articles page of the hsbbweb, the founder of the site posted some interesting numbers that are fairly accurate in terms of numbers... He concluded that about 1 in 10 of about 1/2 million high school players go on to play in college at some level from juco to D1. Of about 140,000 draft-eligible college players each year, about 1 in 100 of those are lucky enough to get drafted. Those numbers have changed for the worse as there are now only 40 rounds in the mlb draft instead of 50. From what I know, about 1/2 of the mlb draft comes from D1 colleges. Most of the other half comes from high school eligible players. For instance, only about 20 to 25 players from the D3 level get drafted each year and I am guessing about 50-70 at the D2 level get drafted. Thus, the odds of even getting a chance to see if the odds apply to you are fairly low. fenwaysouth mentioned luck as a factor and I agree with him. It is a very important part of the equation. Sometimes you have to outlast things until the luck breaks your way all the while being a top producer at whatever level you may be competing at so that you can continue waiting for the break that might not come your way. You have to really like baseball sometimes for that to happen. One thing for people to realize for minor league pay is that if you can somehow mange to get "some" big league service time, you can start to earn a very decent living at the minor league level - assuming your services are still desired. For instance, many AAA players earn 20,000 a month (about 120k per year) during the season and many of them have been earning that for years. You probably have never heard of them but there is a reason guys stay in baseball for their entire careers even if they hardly ever play in the big leagues.
INSIDE THE NUMBERS
by: Bob Howdeshell High School Baseball Web
Total number of participating teams and players in high school and college baseball programs -- as reported by the various institutions
14,988 455,414 (1,622 girls) 274 224 319 Participants Participants Participants 8,439 6,899 9,825 320 9,600 185 114 85 Participants Participants Participants 5,550 3,420 2,550 87 2,175 1,608 48,408 Now we'll take a look "Inside the Numbers"
The following is a compilation of the odds for a high school player to either get drafted by a professional team or play college baseball.
Making the Pros
We will make some assumptions on the total numbers of players eligible each draft year.
High School Players @ 114,159 seniors NCAA (4 year schools) @ 12,581 juniors & seniors NJCAA (2 year schools) @ 11,520 COA (@ year schools) @ 2,175 That gives us 140,435 "draft eligible" players. 140,129/1,500 = 94
1 player in 94 will be selected in the Major League Baseball Draft
Playing in College
High School seniors = 114,159 College "seniors" (or sophomores when related to juco's) = 13,137 That means their are 114,159 graduating high seniors versus 13,137 slots open