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Reply to "The ODDS of playing"

Once again... I believe the only odds that matter regarding making money playing baseball are when and if you get signed to a professional contract. In other words, this year there were 1216 players drafted.  Seeing that I don't know the actual number, lets assume about 1/3 of those players sign a contract. Using the number 400, how many of those players will make a living in professional baseball. Let's guess that 40 or 10% will make it and 20 or 5% make it and stay for awhile.  I like those odds (1 out of 20) chance of making millions playing baseball. And my odds increase based on how well I perform. Of course if I happen to get selected in the first couple rounds my odds are much better than 10%.

 

To me those are the only odds that count regarding a career in baseball.

 

The other odds that do count is the number that go from high school to play in college.  To me it doesn't really matter that much unless someone is entertaining the idea to quit playing and concentrate on something else while still in high school.

 

The odds of going pro out of college really doesn't matter unless it would cause you to quit baseball and concentrate on something else.

 

Most players, love the game or maybe baseball is helping them pay for college.  They might dream of playing in the Big Leagues, but they are young and the odds of them making it isn't going to change their life one bit.  If they become one of the many that don't get signed to a pro contract, life goes on, nothing stopping them from starting a prosperous life.  Some that truly desire it the most will keep trying through independent baseball or other channels, they keep chasing the dream despite the long odds. I just can't possibly call these young people foolish for chasing their dream. And their education in life continues. These type people have a special quality that might just lead to big success in something down the road.

 

So no matter how the odds stack up, it doesn't even matter until you are actually in professional baseball.  The many that don't ever see a professional pay check continue on in life.  Most will have gained a lot from their involvement playing the game whether it ends in high school, college or pros. Each young new professional has his own odds of success. Some will succeed, many won't. Those young people that are not in professional baseball also have their own odds for success. It's just they are not part of the baseball odds.

 

So here is how I look at it. What are the odds of baseball having a positive impact on a players life. Again, just guessing, but I would say well over 90% will be very glad they played the game. 

 

It just seems ridiculous to me that we have numbers of participants and odds of those participants making it to the very top level.  When in fact, those odds will never pertain to a very large % of the number of participants. And they are never the same odds from one individual to the next.

 

Now if you have a new born baby boy and think he is going to become a MLB player, you might want to consider the odds before you become "one of those parents". Even then the odds can be better for some due to genetics.

 

Bottom line... you can use any number you want. Number of youth players, high school players, college players or the population, every man, woman, child, in the entire world.  And those odds mean absolutely nothing to over 90% of those people. In fact, they really don't mean anything to the other 10% either.

 

 

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