The point I am making about "odds" is that the numbers refer to populations. Parents are interested not in populations but one kid...theirs. He will either make it (100%) or he won't (0%). That said, I believe kids should be told the truth about their abilities along the way. The "truth" is obviously different for a 12 year old middle schooler than it is for a 17year old senior. And there are way too many "experts" willing to take your money and tell you whatever "truth" you want to hear.