The point I am making about "odds" is that the numbers refer to populations. Parents are interested not in populations but one kid...theirs. He will either make it (100%) or he won't (0%). That said, I believe kids should be told the truth about their abilities along the way. The "truth" is obviously different for a 12 year old middle schooler than it is for a 17year old senior. And there are way too many "experts" willing to take your money and tell you whatever "truth" you want to hear.
I agree!!
So what do we as parents do? Maybe we don't go get spreadsheets, but in our own way we try to assess the prospects or "odds". (Edit: I think jacjac is saying the same thing in a different way--I also agree with jacjac's post)
Maybe I should have stated this earlier:
1. I think when a youngster is trying to choose between options...if he is fortunate to have them....he should get all the information he/she can about the comparative likelihood for success before deciding whether to go with the surer thing or the longer shot.
2. I think once a youngster has committed to a course of action...whether it is the surer thing or the longer shot... he should go all out, 100%, to try to achieve success.
3. I think 1 and 2 have absolutely nothing to do with each other