At the end of the day, knowing that the number is between 25 and 50% of not sticking, I guess a person's risk tolerance is a big factor? Some may see it as "Go for it and worst case is that I will transfer out" whereas others may think "Finding a fit the first time was a process that I would rather not repeat" (and they would not swing big and aim lower).
Personally, based on what's been shared with respect to the current status of the transfer portal, I would recommend staying away from having to rely on a transfer to keep playing. But, maybe that's just me not understanding everything correctly?