I will provide a real life example. My son was a 2018 HS grad and PBR ranked him #11 in our state at his position. Of the 10 players ranked ahead of him 2 of them went JuCo. The remaining 8 went to big name 4 year schools (with 1 exception). Two years have gone by and this is what has happened. The 2 that went JuCo were standouts and have advanced to great D1 programs. Of the 8 that went big time out of HS only 3 are still at their original schools - and only 2 have gotten in the field. The other 5 all bounced down to JuCos after 1 year at their dream school - including the top 3 who all had a PG ranking of 9.5 or 10. All 3 were elite prospects and they were not yet good enough to get on the field at Texas A&M, University of Houston, and Texas Tech as freshmen. I say all the time on this board that hardly any 18 year old kids are ready to play at top ranked programs as a freshman. This is true at D1 & D2. Every kid (and parent) thinks they are the one that can do it. After a year they find out they aren’t.