adbono posted:MidAtlanticDad posted:adbono posted:First of all most (overwhelming majority) of 18 yr old ballplayers are not ready (mentally or physically) to contribute to a competitive D1 or D2 program. Yet that is where they all want to go. Agree (as previously mentioned) that most players underestimate the competition and most parents overestimate their son's level of ability.
Your comment made me curious about underclassmen in college ball. Seems like you see lots of freshmen studs during the CWS. The D1 numbers below were the only stats I could easily get my hands on. This leaves out a lot of kids who contributed, but I think the numbers still tell us something.
Top 251 in AVG:
Fr. 17 7% So. 46 18% Jr. 98 39% Sr. 90 36%
Top 200 in ERA:
Fr. 20 10% So. 52 26% Jr. 74 37% Sr. 54 27% What those numbers tell me is that 93% of the top 251 D1 hitters (for average) were not 18 year old freshmen. And 90% of the top D1 pitchers (in ERA) were not 18 year old freshmen either. So I think these numbers validate my comment that the overwhelming majority of 18 year olds are not ready for D1. If you are nitpicking my semantics - you may have a valid point. I should have said "not ready to make a significant contribution." Its certainly possible for a freshman to contribute without being significant. The freshmen studs that you see in the CWS are part of the 7% and the 10% from the charts you provided. Remember that I'm speaking in general about the majority of college baseball players. I'm not talking about the top 10%. I'm talking about the rest.
And who knows how many of those freshmen are Redshirt freshmen that have had a whole year to mature and get bigger, faster stronger, better.