No problem and I hear ya Coach... I'm actually usually more on your side of the argument.
There are certainly exceptions and I think every school has some fluidity. I also think most schools end up bringing in one or two (or more) much later than the current perceived schedule. But when it comes to advising someone in the middle of formulating a recruiting plan, I lean toward nudging them in the direction of realistic and attainable. Also, you lose a lot of leverage (and $$) if you are late on the sliding scale. Even if a P5 school has only 8 2019 commits listed at this point, I would wager that they are awaiting final word and/or are quite far down the road on securing most of the others they hope to have committed from that class at this point.
As much as I don't like it, that is more the norm than not these days. My two most recent D1 commits (from our HS) signed early junior year but that was after fairly lengthy courting and communication. And these aren't top tier P5's. We do also have an exception who didn't sign until AFTER SENIOR YEAR and was quite a success story after that. I love it, but I wouldn't recommend it as the best recruiting plan path.
I totally confess to slanting my talking points to what my gut tells me will best help a particular poster (within the confines of what I consider to be generally true).
PS - typing same time as Iowamom... what she said too 