I am just coming across this topic now, and it led me to a little research on my google machine and this 2018 article from Verducci: https://www.si.com/mlb/2018/11...john-surgery-problem
The '22 draft class is absolutely loaded with high end HS arms, many of them having pitched into the high 90s this past year. But this article certainly raises a red flag for those teams thinking of jumping on one of them. As a father of a pitcher, it would certainly give me pause if I was thinking about the draft vs college. On one hand, you could make the argument that you should jump on the signing bonus out of HS because of the high chance of injury and low chance of MLB success (i.e., make $ off the arm while you can). On the other hand, the way you get considered in the first round out of HS (and get paid) is to increase velocity, which increases the chance of injury. There is also the Rocker fear -- you forego the $ out of HS and go to college, your coach has one motivation - to win games - and over pitches you (we could debate whether this happened with Rocker), and you don't get paid at all. There are risks all over the place, and I think it should all come down to one question for the high end HS pitcher -- what is the value of a college education and experience? This is the "life changing money" question, and it is different for each kid.