"The amount of 2020/2019 commitments to colleges would indicate you are wrong."
Did I miss that the NCAA now has NLI's for freshman or sophomores?
Do you understand what those early commitments are worth?
Many posters here have tried to explain how the system works; yet, you keep going to the same watering trough of looking at what A PLAYER does - not what THE SCHOOL does.
Let me put it this way: 2020A throws 85 at a showcase and a coach approaches his naive parents, throws an unenforceable offer in front of them, and gets a "comittment." 2020B is busy working on his mechanics and conditioning and has no idea what his velo is (but, let's say 72), and attends no showcases. Junior year arrives. 2020A is throwing 85 at his umpteenth showcase. 2020B shows up for the first time and throws 89.
What do you think happens? To the coaches it's a business, it's not personal.
Stop living in fear that the train is leaving the station without your sons. While the coaches are indeed throwing "offers" around, each knows that the "offers" will only turn enforceable if the player appears to be able to contribute to the program. It's a brutal world for the kid who has been maneuvered out of his unenforceable offer - and coaches are experts at the maneuver.
In other words, that early offer is meaningful ONLY if the player continues on the path the coach projected; if not, the player will be replaced by one who is on a path to help the program. So, if you want to push that kid who isn't physically ready, who doesn't have the proper mechanics, who gets injured because of all that, fine - one less player in the game of musical chairs.
As for attention from pro scouts, while I am at a HS game scouting a senior, yes, attention will be paid to an incredible underclassman. But all I do is write his name down and file it (along with the velo); the kid gets no credit for his FB velo - because it just doesn't matter until draft year. And, if he was 88 as a junior, he better be more than that as a senior.
Now, from all my posts, you do understand that I feel velo is king. But you can't get there without following a long, hard road which has no shortcuts and which cannot be forced. All you can do is prepare the body for the time the entire chain is ready to come together - some parts of the chain can be worked on early (mechanics, PT, game IQ); other parts can't (growth, physical maturity). Forcing the issue doesn't move the goal closer - it may even foreclose the goal.