How? This whole thing was driven by school size and I would not expect those to change dramatically.
Luv,
While the actual realignment didn't take place until this year, the enrollment data that was used to create the new format was for the 2011-2012 school year, I believe.
Since then, you have high growth areas throughout the state that have grown, and certain enrollments have shrunk. One example I am familiar with, but can't comment on the actual outcome (because I don't know), is with the Suffolk schools. I repeat, I do not know what is actually going to happen. So let's play pretend.
Let's pretend that two of three are moving up, and the 3rd may be moving down to 3A. We'll say that Kings Fork and NR move up to 5A, and Lakeland down to 3A. This is just one locale. It could be that there are 6-8 schools per region that move. The ripple effect of that is substantial.
If the above were to occur, what happens to the new "Ironclad Conference" 18? Half of them would be gone, leaving only 3 schools. Not so "ironclad", huh?! Do they just join another 4A conference? Does that create a rebalance of the other conferences to keep conference numbers fair and equitable? The South would then have only 3 4A conferences. Does that create a re-shuffling of the North to create more balance throughout the state?
It's a hot mess, I tell ya! If you go to the VHSL site right now, you can get a feel for what's going on. There are posted survey's from ADs and Principles across the state that are addressing the next re-alignment for 2015-16.
Without going into detail, they (the VHSL) could have accomplished their goal by realigning the state into FOUR classifications. It would have required some change, but on balance, more rivalries would be in tact, the travel would be far less, less money would be spent, more money would be made, more people would get trophies, and the small schools in the SW would have been appeased.